Friday, April 13, 2012

Polling History

Le Monde looks back at the polls 10 days before the election in 2007 and compares the figures with the actual first-round votes. The polls underestimated the actual totals for both Sarkozy and Royal, came in slightly low on Bayrou, and considerably overestimated the vote for Jean-Marie Le Pen.


bernard said...

Le Monde, like the rest of the press, is desperately trying to maintain the suspense on an election, which is by now a foregone conclusion - and I weight my words. The only uncertainty is the exact size of the landslide that will see F. Hollande elected and N. Sarkozy sent to early retirement.

The suspicion has to be that this could be of historic proportions, such is the wide-spread hatred of the incumbent on the one hand, and the capacity of Hollande to be three chess moves ahead throughout this campaign.

The order of the next two candidates is of interest of course,and I for one would dearly like to see Le Pen humiliated and rubished, but does not really matter for this election. It matters mainly for the coming legislative elections and the shape of the first government of President Hollande.

How the centrist candidate does is mainly of interest for him. He is trying to occupy a space that simply does not and cannot exist in a French Presidential election. Thus he will do very badly in the end. Had his strategy been a legislative strategy, he might have done better. Sadly, his strategy has always been a personal, rather than collective strategy, and therefore he cannot even have a legislative strategy.

We have never had such an obvious trend staring us in the eyes and only once before (2002) has the trend been reversed at this late stage - and we are not in 2002. Forget the suspense. This thriller is no thriller at all: the end game is obvious.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Bernard: I'm not really wondering who'll win the 2nd Round, just by how much.
The first round is interesting because if indeed 30% voters don't go to the polls, the numbers may be different, but the basic outlook should be the same:
Sarkozy and Hollande in the top spots, Le Pen/Mélenchon/Bayrou next (and I am generous counting Bayrou in that group), everybody else way behind.
A few questions remain but they're secondary:
Will Hollande be first or second? Will he get 30% or less? What will the margin be between his score and Sarkozy's?
10 more days. :)
Then we'll be wondering: How will the lack of enthusiasm affect Hollande's presidency? Or will the landslide be enough to help him through the difficult months ahead?

Seriously, when Mickaël Darmon compares Nicolas Sarkozy to the French equivalent of Jason Biggs in American Pie (with a different obsession) you know Sarkozy's toast.