Thursday, May 3, 2012

Report des voix

François Hollande bénéficierait du report de 93 % des voix de Jean-Luc Mélenchon, de 39 % de celles de François Bayrou, et de 22 % de celles de Marine Le Pen. Pour sa part, Nicolas Sarkozy recueillerait 50 % des électeurs de Marine Le Pen, 31 % de ceux de François Bayrou et de 2 % de ceux de Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Quelque 30 % des électeurs de M. Bayrou, 28 % de ceux de Marine Le Pen, et 5 % de ceux de M. Mélenchon voteraient blanc ou nul, ou ne se prononcent pas.
Hollande is still favored 53-47. The debate didn't change many minds,apparently.


Mitch Guthman said...

Apparently, Hollande is picking up roughly the number of defections as predicted, especially from Bayrou. The surprise for me is the number who say they will vote white and I wonder if they will follow though or, in the privacy of the voting booth, ultimately vote for Hollande or Sarkozy and whether that might change the outcome significantly from this prediction.

This polling does also suggest that the many excellent stories in Marianne and Le Point about mostly working-class PS voters who were planning on voting Le Pen in the first round were right on the money. This was evidently a real and significant phenomenon. I always thought these were very important stories and that the PS voters being interviewed were speaking from their hearts. It seems to me that if the PS does not begin to address the concerns expressed by these people who are largely from their traditional base, then over time these defections will increase and become increasingly sticky (eventually becoming permanent). I think Hollande is lucky that these traditional PS voters are coming home to him this time. It would, however, be a fatal error for the PS to continue to take these people for granted.

Robert said...

So Bayrou will vote for Hollande, but is making no recommendation to his supporters. Talk about indecision and half-measures....