Sunday, June 10, 2012

Left Wins Legislatives

Législatives : de 305 à 353 sièges pour la gauche parlementaire

La gauche emporterait de 305 à 353 sièges aux élections législatives d'après des projections réalisées par Ipsos pour "Le Monde", Radio France et France Télévisions. Le PS aurait de 270 à 300 députés, EELV de 8 à 14 et le Front de gauche de 14 à 20. La droite parlementaire aurait de 227 à 266 sièges dont 210 à 240 pour l'UMP. Le résultat du Front national oscille entre 0 et 2 députés. La majorité absolue est à 289 sièges.

Couple of things to note. The PS by itself does not have a majority. The Front de Gauche did better than EELV. And the turnout was extremely low.


Anonymous said...

It's a good result for the PS, no doubt about it. The Socialists will likely have a majority on their own, at worst with EELV. And Mélenchon bit the dust in Hénin-Beaumont.


Louis said...

The PS might not have the absolute majority, but they will have a majority to take decisions. And, if they will probably side with the Ecologists, they don't seem to need their voices to get a majority. So it is not that bad.
The low turnout is worrying, but not particularly surprising (results announced in advance, election fatigue after 6 months of presidential campaign, etc). It would be interesting to see if/how the expatriate vote dragged the percentage of turnout down: only about 20% of expatriates actually voted. Will be interesting to look at the final data.

TexExile said...

The FN are, of course, thrilled with their national vote total, if not with the number of seats they will now contest. Granted, it's a great result after 2007 but it still represents only a marginal advance on 2002. As I said of MLP's total in round one of the presidential contest, the total is too high, but what is striking, given the changed conditions, is that it is not higher. In circumstances more favourable to the hard right than any since the 1930s, and having re-branded her party as best she could, MLP has managed a modest advance on what her father did a decade ago.

This result reinforces my sense that we may with this election be seeing the natural ceiling on the appeal of the FN, not the next step in its take-over of the right wing of French politics.

The irony is that I still think the UMP could well fragment. I am just less clear that this will be to MLP's advantage.

bernard said...

the example of the 6 ministers supposed to be in jeopardy (I could name a lot of people who would kill for the actual score they had in the first round) prior to the first round illustrates perfectly the drivel coming out of French journalists with little to say and still desperate to maintain a degree of suspense. It is entirely possible but not certain of course, given the first round results, for the PS to have a majority by itself in Parliament. This however is not vital as the PS has a government pact with the MRG, the Greens and some other small partiies - but not the FDG -, and is theerfore virtually sure by now of having a majority for the government pact coalition. Noteworthy of course is the fact that the partners in the coalition are in no electoral shape to afford fun and games.