Thursday, May 3, 2012

Bayrou Will Vote Hollande ...

... but will give no consigne de vote. (h/t Robert)

Perhaps the whole idea of un consigne de vote is passé as party ties have weakened in keeping with the logic of a presidential system, which makes parties the vehicles of their candidates. Especially true for MoDem.

Report des voix

François Hollande bénéficierait du report de 93 % des voix de Jean-Luc Mélenchon, de 39 % de celles de François Bayrou, et de 22 % de celles de Marine Le Pen. Pour sa part, Nicolas Sarkozy recueillerait 50 % des électeurs de Marine Le Pen, 31 % de ceux de François Bayrou et de 2 % de ceux de Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Quelque 30 % des électeurs de M. Bayrou, 28 % de ceux de Marine Le Pen, et 5 % de ceux de M. Mélenchon voteraient blanc ou nul, ou ne se prononcent pas.
Hollande is still favored 53-47. The debate didn't change many minds,apparently.

Copé Makes His First Post-Election Move Before the Election

Blogging from 36,000 feet. Jean-François Copé, who is no doubt delighted to see Sarkozy on the verge of being driven out of office, has begun to move his forces into position. Today he announced a return of "currents" within the UMP. Since tensions within the party are already evident, to put it mildly, the formalization of confrontation puts Copé, as party leader, in the driver's seat as arbiter of any future conflicts. His principal rival will probably be Fillon, although I imagine that younger men of ambition such as Baroin and Lemaire will also be jockeying for position.

À plus tard

I'm off to California, so there will be radio silence here for the next 12 hours or so.