Thursday, May 10, 2012

Polanski Compares Himself to Dreyfus

My cousin Marc isn't buying it.

Sociology of the Vote

Dealing With Bayrou

I think the signs are clear that Martine Aubry will not be the next Prime Minister of France. After the election, there were indications out of Hollande's camp that, as a gesture of good will toward François Bayrou, who supported Hollande in round 2, the PS should withdraw its candidate against him in the legislative elections. Pierre Moscovici, Hollande's top lieutenant, made the point publicly and explicitly. But Martine Aubry, as party boss, had the final decision, and her answer was no. That is not a decision that Aubry would have taken, I think, were she on the verge of becoming PM.

As a matter of political tactics, one can argue the wisdom of the move either way. For it is an incontrovertible fact that any gesture of complicity with MoDem, no matter how insignificant, is viewed with suspicion by the left wing of the PS as well as the extreme left, with all its phobias about social treachery. And it's also true that MoDem voters did not come over to Hollande in large numbers, despite their leader's gesture of support. On the other hand, a party that assumes the presidency with a fairly weak mandate (a margin of just over 3%) might want to rassembler as a first priority. A symbolic nod to MoDem would cost little and might reap benefits later on.

Of course it is in Hollande's power to make more significant gestures, and it remains to be seen if he will do so. What is not a good sign is that Aubry is already marking her distance from the new president. If she persists in attempting to make herself the leader of the left wing of the PS by emphasizing her differences with Hollande, she will greatly complicate the already complicated situation of the new president. This minor skirmish may be forgotten in the months to come, or it may in retrospect loom as the first premonitory sign of the rock on which Hollande's presidency may founder. The endemic division of the Left has always been its Achilles' heel. Aubry might have waited a few days before reminding everyone that victory can exacerbate as well as heal old wounds.

What Irritates Hollande? HADOPI

Via Eric Dupin:
D’ordinaire fort peu irritable, Hollande ne cache pas son agacement à l’évocation du dossier Hadopi. Celui-ci a, il est vrai, donné lieu à de spectaculaires valses-hésitations de sa part. « Le débat sur la culture est totalement phagocyté par Hadopi. Et il y a des lobbies tellement divers ! Faut-il abroger ou pas ? Et si oui, faut-il une nouvelle loi ? Quand je dis que je suis pour la régulation mais contre Hadopi, je ne satisfais personne. La politique, c’est quand même plus compliqué, plus subtil que certains ne se l’imaginent ! De toute façon, les gens ne vont pas voter sur Hadopi. C’est l’absurdité d’une campagne. On est sollicité par tous les groupes, par toutes les catégories. Heureusement, les gens votent quand même pour quelque chose de plus élevé. » 

Julien Dray, Persona Non Grata

It seems that there is one Socialist who will certainly not be getting a post in the new administration. Julien Dray apparently insulted the new First Lady by suggesting that it was a thirst for power that led to her relationship with Président Hollande. And then Dray compounded his offense by inviting DSK to his famous birthday party in a naughty bar. Mme Trierweiler therefore ejected the boor from a party for the Hollande campaign team when he showed up uninvited. So, already we have la petite histoire even before l'histoire has had a chance to get started:

Mais l'atmosphère tourne à l'aigre dans l'après-midi, lors du pot d'adieu offert à l'équipe de campagne. Julien Dray s'est présenté avenue de Ségur sans être invité. Valérie Trierweiler a aussitôt bondi pour lui intimer l'ordre de partir : "Tu n'as rien à faire ici, tu sors !"
La compagne de M. Hollande reproche depuis des mois au député de l'Essonne, ex-soutien de Ségolène Royal, d'avoir laissé supposer qu'elle aurait jeté son dévolu sur le nouveau président par goût du pouvoir. La fête d'anniversaire de la rue Saint-Denis, où M. Dray avait convié une partie de l'équipe de campagne de M. Hollande en même temps qu'Anne Sinclair et Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a scellé son sort aux yeux de la nouvelle première dame.