Saturday, July 6, 2013

Sarkozy's Comeback

The Conseil Constitutionnel seems to have granted Nicolas Sarkozy the opportunity he was waiting for. By rejecting his campaign accounts, the CC gave him an excuse to resign and inject himself back into the political fray. What's more, it gave his party an excuse to welcome him. Not that the rank-and-file didn't want him. He remains very popular among ordinary UMP voters. But the leadership? Fillon has attacked him in the past, and Copé surely has no use for an even more powerful rival for the next presidential candidacy. Yet the party is Sarko's for the taking--if only the judges and the courts would leave him alone. Alas, he is involved in so many scandals, that he is unlikely to have a tranquil time ahead. But his return to center stage is likely to be fracassant.


Anonymous said...

A constitutional expert was careful to point out on France Info that Sarkozy can't resign from the CC as the position is inherent to all former presidents. All he can do is inform the CC that he will no longer participate. He remains a member whether he wants to be or not.

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FrédéricLN said...

Jean-François Copé is the present UMP President, and he has all interest to push for Nicolas Sarkozy's comeback. That move should push the not-sarkozyst-any-more François Fillon out of the stage, and, if ever the Justice would stop Nicolas Sarkozy, Jean-François Copé would appear as the loyal and natural heir.

But Nicolas Sarkozy has another option to get rid of both François Fillon's and Jean-François Copé's groups: create his own party, as Jacques Chirac did with RPR, forcing UMP to dissolve itself, as occurred to UDR, and forcing UMP leaders and representatives to a renewed personal allegiance to the former President, as occurred with UDR "barons".

Money might be the tipping point. Dissolving UMP would leave its banks with its 50+ million euros debt. But it would also mean the loss, for the 4 next years, of 6.7 million euros per year (allocated on the basis of the number of votes at the 2012 "législatives" elections, ).

The new party would, if all Senators and Députés allocate their share of funding to it, get 13 million euros of State aid per year. That's enough to pay a good staff under French standards (my own party, Modem, lives with 1 million / year).

FrédéricLN said...

A longer version — and, all things considered, a different conclusion — on my blog!