Friday, October 11, 2013

Copé Refuses to Choose Between Hollande and Le Pen

Jean-François Copé, the leader of the UMP and presidential hopeful-in-waiting, was asked point-blank how he would vote in 2017 if the second round came down to a choice between Hollande and Le Pen. He refused to choose (watch the video at the link to appreciate the full smarminess of his expression), accrediting the notion that he would consider both alternatives equally unpalatable. This after Jean-Pierre Raffarin had just said without hesitation that he would make the "republican" choice in favor of Hollande (as Hollande reminded everyone he did in favor of Chirac in 2002). Copé thus aligns himself with Fillon, who also refused to draw a clear distinction, saying only that he would vote for the less "sectarian" of the two candidates (without specifying his criteria of "sectarianism").

The UMP is thus dividing itself rapidly into two camps: those who want to distance Le Pen and those who hope to entice her voters by suggesting that if the lights are turned down low enough, they might just embrace her. It's an appalling spectacle, this courtship of the Mean Girl, who is rightly most contemptuous of those who would steal a kiss from her if they thought it would make them more popular with the tough kids on the far right end of the schoolyard.

My instincts tell me that Copé and Fillon are discrediting themselves with these âneries. Both look increasingly desperate. Meanwhile, Juppé, who has been clear in his rejection of Le Pen, has been quietly putting himself forward as the potential standard-bearer for those on the Right who cannot stomach the UMP droitisé. Subtly, the vaunted rivalry between Copé and Fillon is thus giving way to a more substantial struggle between Juppé and a Sarkozy (miraculously delivered from disgrace by the favor of his judges in the Bettencourt scandal, although he still has Karachigate and Tapiegate to worry about, entre autres). As for the next generation, NKM is the clear anti-Le Pen candidate, and she is doing better than expected in the Paris mayoral contest, although I'm told she will probably still lose. Bruno Le Maire has been disappointingly circumspect in the Le Pen controversy.

Since the UMP will choose its next presidential candidate by open primary, it's not out of the question that a principled centrist could prevail even without a substantial base among party militants.


bernard said...

"Since the UMP will choose its next presidential candidate by open primary"

2 years is a long time in politics.

Cincinna said...

Two years may well be a long time in Politics, but the hypothetical scenario of a 2nd round runoff betwee Hollande and MLP is bordering on impossible. Holland would never make it to the 2nd round, and it is unthinkable that the PS would run him again. The left had its chance with Holland, a weak, incompetent, inexperienced technocrat, and the results have been disastrous, economically and socially.
But, faced with that choice, it is rather like asking how one prefers to die ~ by firing squad or hanging. Voting for the lesser of two evils option, still leaves you voting for evil. MLP is just another species of Socialist: a National Socialist. I would never vote for a socialist of any kind.
The dirty little secret in France is the number of people on the old left and far left who would vote for MLP. There is movement towards a centrist party in France, and under that scenario, the right usually gains. I'm hearing so many people saying "I might consider MLP, after all, how much worse could she be than what we have now"
Sarkozy has been cleared, and has, since he left office, kept a very low profile, and is now seizing the moment of the PS record unpopularity and fratricide to plan his comeback. The crowds and the approval ratings in the polls are quite remarkable. The enthusiasm at his appearances is enormous, warm, and genuine.
Given the choice between Sarko and MLP, how many of the sanctimonious Socialists will hold to the "fameux pact républican?" and vote for Sarko?
On another note, the Socialists, in their delusional frenzy over DSK, allowing him to go so far, get so close to l'Elyseé, eliminating all competition, when everyone knew what he was, have given the City of New York un cadeau empoisonné in the person of Kenneth Thompson, lawyer for Nafissatou Diallo, who is poised, in a city registered Democrat 6/1, to be the next District Attorney of Kings Country. An extremely powerful position.Thompson, with a totally unremarkable career whose only accomplishment is getting a multi million dollar settlement payment for his client from Anbe Sinclair will be a catastrophe as DA, as will the likely new mayor Bill de Blasio (not his real name ), red diaper baby and friend of communist Cuba, the Sandinistas, the New Party, Working families Party, ACORN, Al Sharpton, and the anti-Israel boycott and divest groups. We haven't had a Democrat Mayor in 28 years, but now this great city is at great risk, and can turn into what most democrat run cities have become- a hell hole for working people and the middle class.

Cincinna said...

Update 10/13/13

As I mentioned as a strong possibility in my earlier post, le pacte Républicain never materialized. The PS, as advised by François Hollande, as well as others on the left, did not rally and vote for the UMP candidate, and the Front National won.

From the Financial Times:

"In the decisive second round of the poll for a departmental council seat representing Brignoles, a town in the south of France, the FN candidate comfortably defeated his rival from the UMP, the party of former president Nicolas Sarkozy, by 54 per cent to 46 per cent.

"The knockout blow came despite calls from President François Hollande’s Socialist party for its supporters and other leftist voters to rally behind the UMP candidate in a bid to block the FN. The left’s candidate in the poll, the incumbent Communist, was easily knocked out in the first round of the election last weekend."