Thursday, September 12, 2013

German Voter Flows

Germany votes later this month and Die Zeit online has a fascinating graph of voter flows into and out of the various parties since 2005. I wish there were a similar graphic for France. In any case, note the substantial flows out of the center-left SPD and into the extreme-left Die Linke as well as the Greens and the abstainers, and, more surprisingly, the CDU/CSU, and the equally substantial flows out of the center-right CDU/CSU into the FDP and the abstainers. The big difference is that there is almost zero flow from CDU/CSU into SPD, but SPD members will cross over to CDU/CSU.

Death of Jean Véronis

Jean Véronis, the linguist and analyst of political language, whose work I cited frequently on this blog, has died in a car accident. Very sad news. (h/t Eloi Laurent)

An Explanation for Hollande's Timidity?

It is often said that François Mitterrand was afflicted with Allende Syndrome: he feared that the US would somehow contrive to remove him from power if he became too independent. Perhaps François Hollande is suffering from Berlusconi Syndrome. It seems that, according to former ECB executive council member Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi, Berlusconi was removed from power because the Troika insisted on it:
Ex-ECB insider Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi has quietly dropped a few bombshells in his new book Morire di Austerita(Dying of Austerity), worth a read if you know Italian.
Mr Bini-Smaghi – until recently on the ECB's six-man executive council, and for many years Italy's man in Frankfurt – states that Silvio Berlusconi was toppled as Italian premier in November 2011 as soon as he began to rattle the EMU cage in earnest.
(h/t Glyn Morgan)