Thursday, March 27, 2014

No "Inversion of the Unemployment Curve" in Sight

For a moment, it looked as though the "inversion of the unemployment curve" promised by François Hollande at the beginning of his term might finally be arriving. But no more. Just in time for the second round of the municipals, the bad news has arrived. There has been a strong surge of newly unemployed workers, and long-term unemployment is also up. Many have dropped out of the work force entirely.

Dans un communiqué, le ministère du travail et de l'emploi convient que la hausse est "marquée", mais ne l'explique pas vraiment. "Ces chiffres contrastent avec les derniers indicateurs disponibles tant sur le front de l’emploi et du chômage que sur celui de l’activité économique", plaide-t-il, en évoquant les indicateurs d'activité positifs publiés ces derniers jours par l'Insee. "L’activité économique présente des signes de reprise de plus en plus tangibles", estime-t-il, avant de promettre que "le pacte de responsabilité viendra amplifier la dynamique de création d’emploi".

1 comment:

Mitch Guthman said...

How unfortunate for Hollande! But since Mellon-style liquidationism (“Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate”) is now the unofficial doctrine of the PS, I suppose that the unpredictability of when the “rottenness” will be purged from society is one of the political downsides of relying on hitting bottom as a morally desirable goal.

That is, however, the essence of Hollande’s gamble on liquidationism, namely, that by 2017, the economy will have hit rock bottom. Everything of value in the lives of most people will have been lost to “more enterprising people” and so, having learned their lesson and their proper places, most people will be willing to, as Andrew Mellon expressed it, “work harder and live more moral lives”.