Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Who's Leaking the Buisson Recordings and Why?

So, another scandal strikes the UMP. After the accusations against Copé, who allegedly sent inflated invoices to a consulting firm run by cronies of his, now we have recordings of private meetings made by ex-Sarkozy advisor Patrick Buisson--the man who directed the UMP's veer to the extreme right--leaked to the press. Who did it, and why? If Buisson himself leaked the tapes, what was he trying to accomplish? To embarrass Sarkozy? Nothing terribly embarrassing has leaked out yet, other than the existence of the tapes themselves. But perhaps these first leaks are a warning shot across Sarkozy's bow. Stay out of politics--or else. Whose interests would that serve? The suspects are legion.


Anonymous said...

Who would it benefit? The FN which has long said it aims to replace the UMP as the official right of centre grouping. Didn't Buisson have links with FN or satellites in the past? Might he be a Marine mole? Reportedly he has thousands of hours of tapes

Mitch Guthman said...

I agree with Anonymous. Everybody's prospects would be significantly improved without Sarkozy, although I think the two main winners would be MLP and Hollande.

Hollande certainly comes out the most ahead. I think Hollande will have an uphill battle even to make the second round. He's seriously disliked by a huge portion of the PS rank and despised by the rest of the left.

There seems to be very little daylight between the economic policies of the two men so there’s no real cost to the left if its stays home. Hollande has burned his bridges with much of the left and I don’t see a way for him to hold them in the first round. But without them, his goose is cooked.

Having the UMP represented by a far right candidate like Copé will make holding them slight easier for Hollande in the first round since it means that, for the moment at least, he would still be the lesser evil. In the second round, he's obviously hoping to face MLP. He knows that he has no chance of defeating Sarkozy. So anything that keeps Sarkozy out while advancing the fortunes of Copé and MLP is good for Hollande.

MLP also gains because I believe that if Sarkozy is asked, he (unlike Copé) will make an unequivocal commitment to a republican front against MLP. That pledge plus minimal outreach will allow Sarkozy will hold the center and very possibly draw significantly from the left iboths rounds, perhaps even better than would Hollande.

My bottom line: MLP versus Sarkozy is a repeat of 2002. MLP against Hollande might be a near run thing.