Saturday, November 21, 2015

PS risen from the dead?

I normally avoid blogging about polls. but this one catches the eye, no doubt more than it should. Regionals: FN 27, PS 26, LR-UDI-MoDem 25. OK, the bad news is that the FN is still out in front, and the race is, as the phrase goes, "a statistical dead heat." But the PS had been taken for dead, and now here it is back in the running. How did that happen? A consequence of Nov. 13? Fear of a Le Pen juggernaut? Revulsion of center-rightists against the Le Penisation of nearly all the leading Republican figures other than Juppé?

Or just bad polling? The polls in recent elections in many countries have been way off the mark. Deep currents are roiling electorates everywhere, and in France the currents are deeper and more contradictory than most, with the latest atrocity only stirring the witches' brew even more. It would take a fool or a seer to offer an explanation of these numbers, so I simply present them for your consideration.


bert said...

FFS, Art.
Hollande's approval ratings doubled after Charlie Hebdo, something we were told at the time was unprecedented in polling history.

I like "Le Penisation", though.
There's a story about a christmas state dinner a few years back.
British Ambassador: Mme Pompidou, what do you wish for in the New Year?
Mme Pompidou: I want a penis.
[Awkward pause]
M le President: My dear, it is pronounced 'appiness.

Mitch Guthman said...

My guess is that this represents a probably temporary blip. But it is true that most people think that Hollander has handled the response to both the Charlie Hebdo and the November 13th attacks skillfully and with a sense dignity and gravity that we all suspect that Le Pen and Sarkozy could never muster.

Sarkozy seems lost. Between the UMP's pointless and strange name change and his own disengagement, Sarkozy seems to be drifting aimlessly on the assumption that winning the UMP primary is the functional equivalent of becoming president by acclamation. And, in fairness, the opposition is always at a severe disadvantage in times of crisis when the focus is first and foremost on the Élysée Palace.

As for MLP, she started losing height with the ridiculous fight with her father (which also reminded everyone about the monsters in the FN's attic and the trolls in the basement). She also seems to have moved off of her message of economic populism and her more sensible criticism of Europe.

To a middle or working class person, it might be worth holding one's nose and voting for Le Pen if that's the only way to save the social welfare state but without the economic populism, all you'd get is that the FN's monsters would be out and proud and the social welfare state would give way to a sort of Vichy restoration. I think people are beginning to see that while she may once have spoken in favor of something like Paul Krugman's economic policies, the FN's commitment to hard money is baked into its DNA.

Anonymous said...

@Mitch go take a look at the FN's youth wing

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