Friday, December 9, 2016

One More Down on the Left

La sénatrice Marie-Noëlle Lienemann annonce au « Monde » qu’elle renonce à être candidate à la primaire de la gauche

« J’ai décidé de ne pas être candidate à la primaire de la gauche », annonce dans un entretien au « Monde » la sénatrice de Paris, qui dit vouloir éviter « un éparpillement des voix ». 

First Hollande out, now Lienemann. Not that anyone ever gave her the slightest chance. Still, simplification helps. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamon drop out as well before the first round. That would give Montebourg a boost.

Investors Worry About French Political Risk

Despite polls assuring that a Le Pen victory remains highly unlikely, investors have become wary of French sovereign debt. The spread between French and German bonds has increased by 10 basis points since September. The anxiety in the bond market is focused primarily on the outside chance of a Le Pen victory next way. But there is also political risk in a "safe" Fillon win, which would pose less of a threat of Frexit than a Front National victory but conceivably more of a threat of widespread worker resistance to Fillon's proposed overhaul of the French social safety net, including drastic modification of both the pension and health insurance system, as well as labor law reform. Given the massive demonstrations against the Macron and El Khomri laws, these fears are not exaggerated.