Monday, May 8, 2017

Ça bouge!

Some interesting bits on France2 tonight after the slightly sick-making shots of the "young president" being taken by the arm by the "old president" and "guided" gently through the symbolic rituals of power: the regeneration of the eternal flame at the Arc de Triomphe, etc. And of course the resurrected footage of young Emmanuel Macron acting in a high school play under the direction of Brigitte Trogneux--who continued to critique his speech preparation 23 years later before a major meeting. Heartwarming, I'm sure.

I was nevertheless more interested in the news that Christian Estrosi, selon ses dires, was offered and refused a ministry under Macron. His support for le jeune ingénu seems to have fractured his majority in the PACA regional counsel, so he is resigning from his post there and falling back on his fiefdom in Nice.

Meanwhile, Nathalie St.-Cricq reports that Macron will choose a PM from the right, possibly the mayor of Le Havre Édouard Philippe. This would have the benefit of splitting the right, St.-Cricq said, adding that it was all being plotted under the watchful eye of Alain Juppé. Meanwhile, Sarkozy, at la place de l'Etoile, had a few words of avuncular advice for the new man of the hour. "Je sais d'expérience que le difficile commence maintenant." Eh oui.

Still just rumors.


Anonymous said...

I recommend Em, Les coulisses d'une victoire on LCI. The F3 documentary was also very good.

Wrt Estrosi : many areas voted FN in and around Nice, and he's thinking of saving himself. Some have been saying it's to enter the government, but I really don't think so - Estrosi isn't Macron's style (neither well-read nor moderate)
I think Art is 100% right on that one.
If he chooses E.Philippe it means Juppe 's helping him against Sarkozy.

Anonymous said...

There is an irritating Brezhnevite tendency in French TV when it comes to covering the PRESIDENT. It drove me nuts living in Paris during Sarkozy's time in power. On the other hand, the French tune in to two-hour interrogations of their political leaders as though they were sporting events. I've followed politics in many different countries and the French politicians are by far the best informed and best spoken.

Alexandra Marshall said...

News of Estrosi stepping down... I immediately figured there was some kind of regional scandal but then remembered that French politicians don't preemptively retire over such trifles as raiding the caisses. (Thanks, Fillon, for modeling that.) Next thought terrified me: are the rumors he'd get ministry of interior true??? How is Mr. Reconciliation with the banlieues going to square assigning a full on racist running the cops? Whew, he's not. So OK, Art, you believe it's because has to regroup politically. His support of Macron never made a bit of sense to me on that register. Estrosi seems to represent everything EM wants to upend. Why did he support the kid in the first place? In any event, I wish EM luck empowering a new political class and sweeping hacks like CE out with the trash.

Mitch Guthman said...


What is it you think Macron wants to upend? As far as I can tell, he doesn't want to upend anything. He is essentially the sum of his ambitions.

Contrary to all the moaning about Benoît Hamon and JLM, it looks like fewer of the people of the left either stayed home or voted blanc while the followers and voters of Honest Fillion defected to Marine Le Pen in droves. And yet, (if Art is right), it is the LR that is about to be rewarded with ministries, plum jobs, and patronage aplenty—most especially if cohabitation becomes necessary.

I will be awaiting the choices Macron makes in the next several weeks. They will be the first real clues to who he is and what he wants. It wouldn't surprise me if he does go with the LR, even in a cohabitation.

Anonymous said...

I assume that Macron will lean towards LR. Left-leaners who are surprised by this should have abstained along with JLM. LR is the bigger block to break. As a leftist myself I would prefer to see Macron construct his majority with what is left of the PS. But what is left of the Socialists? Eight per cent of the electorate. The "big" names - Hollande, Valls, Royal, le Drian - are all with Macron already. The people who are "left" enough to be against Macron but "right" enough not to rally to JLM (Hamon, Aubrey) are defending a very small bit of territory indeed. Naturally Macron will lean towards the right, where there is more to be had. I won't resent it of there is a big spot for Borloo, or nice old Bayrou. But in fact there will be places for people far to the right of what I prefer. I wish that there weren't, but this is what happens when you elect a centrist. I'm a JLM voter who listened to Art enough to vote for Macron in round #2, but who has no illusions about what that meant: a younger and more effective Juppé.

Passerby said...

And now Valls has been announced to run for a seat of Député under the colors of the la République en Marche.

Left and right, there are threats been made to expels the traitors that would join Macron, but one has to wonder what will be left of LR and the Socialists in a few weeks.

While the Socialists already realized that they were in a bad situation, I have a feeling that some on the LR side underestimate the risk (I'm talking about you Mr. Baroin). In a party historically dominated by the RPR "alumni", many tend to forget that UMP&LR is an alliance "de la droite et du centre". I have a feeling that for many centrists will reassess their political ties now that the Macron election offers them a real alternative (especially after LR desperate attempts to seduce the most conservative electorate).
Sure with the downfall of the old guard the leadership of historical parties is up for grabs, but what troops will be left to lead?

Anonymous said...

What is being formed is what Marine used to call the UMPS. The rats from the sinking ships of the right and the left are converging at the center. The éminences grises of this "new" movement" are Hollande and Juppé. Between them (and Bayrou/Borloo) it is certain that Macron will get a majority. So much the better, pourvu que ça dure. Still, French version of the German grand coalition makes me uneasy. The French center is weaker than the German, and if it fails, there is no (palatable) alternative.

Anonymous said...

Well, Sarko is undeniably right for once: like George W Bush he become less unbearable in hindsight, if only because he is compared to more horrible demons. I fear, however, that we haven't seen the last of him. Who, in all of Europe, has ever *wanted* power with the same naked desire as Nicolas Sarkozy? Renzi is a choirboy in comparison. With luck he will simply embrasse himself, but he will haunt our screens till I'm a senior citizen.

Alexandra Marshall said...

Mitch he's said he wants a renewal of the political class and is asking that half of his total deputies up for election come from the private sector. He has made nonstop noise about throwing the bums out. I'm not talking about his program, but his colleagues.

Lapinot said...

Edouard Philippe could be forming a new party for the legislative elections.