Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Two-Thirds of the Insoumis Militants Will Vote Blank or Abstain

What did you expect, when their chief all but declared he'd regard them as wusses of they voted for "the bankers' tool?" But it's not as dire as it sounds. The canvas covered only the FI militants, not the 19% of the electorate that went for Méluche in round 1. Presumably a good many of them are made of flabbier stuff and are more frightened of a Le Pen presidency than a Mélenchon tongue-lashing. On verra. I'm still sticking with my Macron by a comfortable margin prediction. I'm not saying how comfortable. Comfortable enough, though. If I'm proved wrong, I'll stop blogging (just kidding--did Fillon drop out of the race when mis en examen? Why should I be harder on myself than such a paragon?)


bernard said...

You're right about that, all that, so long as bloggers remain entitled to an opinion...But beware, the police of "some think this, on the other hand others think that" is not far now that it has emasculated journalism.

Anonymous said...

I had a dream (nightmare?) last night in which Le Pen won 46.5%. Sarkozy became prime minister. That last thing certainly won't happen, so the actual election results will almost certainly be better than my subconscious fears!

Anonymous said...

The Insoumis do not follow their leader. in fact they refuse to be dictated a vote. Some are immature kids and some are factory workers who worry that with Emmanuel Macron there'll be random gigs and severance packages. Many people in France, even the non Insoumis group, are really angry and even among people who do plan on oting "against Le Pen" there was a lot of balking at the onslaught of "vote for Macron". (I say this as one who will vote for Macron, not just against Le Pen, and who gets to hear the anger and balking.) People really don't want to do what politicians and TV's tell them is the right thing to do. Why, I'm not sure, but they've chosen this election to stand up against "official directions", MLP risk be damned.

For example:

Et la palme de l'Insoumission revient à... cet Insoumis déniché par France Inter ce mardi matin, qui attend le résultat de la consultation des Insoumis, prévu pour aujourd'hui, afin de...faire le contraire. Explication : si la majorité des consultés préconise de voter blanc ou de s'abstenir, lui ira voter Macron, pour éviter une déroute de Macron. Que la majorité des consultés, en revanche, préconise le vote Macron, et il pourra tranquillement s'abstenir. CQFD. Il rejoint ainsi la savante stratégie d'une partie des Insoumis de notre équipe, stratégie que je vous dévoilais la semaine dernière.
Look at the comments section:
And you may think it's just the one, but each TV channel found a bunch like this, from Millennials to retirees, who can't believe others would dictate who they "should" vote for.

When you've lived the Trump catastrophe, you o_O but this is the reality on the ground.
People do not want to be told who to vote for and especially not the Insoumis.
The best way to ensure a vote "against Le Pen and for Macron" is to avoid telling people to vote for Macron.
As NKM said today with lucidity "when you have two ballots, if you don't want one to pass, you pick the other one".
Does Melenchon think of the legislatives? Certainly. And is it irresponsible to think of his party's future rather than making sure Macron passes? In my opinion, yes. But probably not in Melenchon's view. No matter what, in terms of efficiency I really don't think telling Insoumis to vote Macron would work.
This year, people make their choices *despite* leaders' directions or purely from what they "feel is right".
That's true even on the right, which typically "follows the leader" in lockstep (not sure if it's the same in the US? It seems we've seen the reverse, with bipartisanship and its inherent individual dispersion moving to extreme partisanship in the past election.) That's why Fillon can say he'll vote Macron and 55% Fillon voters won't. That's why Dupont Aignan can say he'll support MLP and half his voters are furious and say they won't.

bernard said...

Melenchon can rant all he wants and his followers may behave like 5 year old children, Macron is still going to win and win big by 60%. I trust the stability of polling a hell of a lot more than I trust rantings.

As for Melenchon in the legislatives, he will be getting a very bad surprise. Responsible electors from the left, whether they voted Melenchon, Hamon or Macron, are not about to forget his behaviour. There will be payback.

Anonymous said...

^I totally agree Bernard. Macron will win and I'd be surprised if he is below 60%.
I also agree that Mélenchon will get a very bad surprise in June.
I know that almost all people who typically vote PS/écolo and went for macron or Mélenchon have said they'd vote PS/Ecolo - only two defections, for Macron. Not so for Melenchon.
And I hope enough 'insumis", when about to cast a "blank" vote, will actually pick up a Macron ballot from the pile.
It doesn't change French voters' petulant/contrarian nature in this election. I would actually worry if I weren't so sure LePen has NO chance of winning - even less so with that crazy idea of going back to Nouveau Franc while negotiating in euros.
My inlaws said they had just gotten used to Euros, they don't want to go back to francs, old or new (although I've heard them say "ça fait combien en anciens francs?" .. :p)
Someone tried to explain this double currency to me by saying it'd be like having the France CFA, an African currency. Oh I'm sure this will play SO WELL with FN voters, to create an African currency in France (even if called 'franc') . :D

Anonymous said...

Mélanchon is cynically encouraging left-wing abstention in order to deny Macron a big mandate, in the hopes that this will allow FI to win more seats in the June elections.

Mélenchon clearly hopes for the following scenario: a very narrow Macron win, followed by the economy collapsing and FI growing exponentially to overtake FN as the main opposition party. Then he will run in 2022 and be elected president in a landslide.

This is a dangerous delusion--if the economy tanked under Macron, I'd expect the FN to benefit and grow to become the main opposition party, not FI.

People are far too willing to take the supposed idealism of the militant far left at face value. That idealism often masks a cynical lust for power--no less dangerous for being delusional.

Mitch Guthman said...

@ Anonymous of May 2, 2017 at 5:02 PM,

As an American supporter of Bernie Sanders, I am sympathetic with people who are tired of being preached to about voting for Macron. I do not think the hectoring tone directed to my tribe was at all productive. It probably cost Hillary about 5% of the Democratic base.

I’m even more sympathetic with the factory worker or teacher who doesn’t want to become an involuntary participant in the gig economy.

A protest vote seems especially alluring since it looks like MLP’s campaign is basically a damp squib; even if you assume the polling is off by roughly the same as it missed Brexit and Trump, her campaign seems becalmed and it’s way too late to make up the difference by Sunday. So the focus is naturally on what happens after Macron become president. There is a logic to this but there’s also a serious risk of a fluke that elects a rampant Marine Le Pen instead of a somewhat weakened Macron.

It is, after all, a binary choice. And, at one point, Hillary was considered even more “inevitable” than Macron is today. If I were French, I would vote for Macon and worry about weakening him later.

Massilian said...

I found interesting the fact that the importance of Macron's victory will influence the strategy from L.R. for the legislatives.
A very strong Macron victory means a low score for the F.N. and therefore enough room for a potentially strong Les Républicain score at the législatives.
L.R. becoming the true powerful opposition from the right to the Macron government. Not very good for Macron.
On the other hand, a "tight" victory for Macron would mean a strong score for the F.N. and that would make the F.N. a dangerous rival for L.R. in the législatives. The F.N. could become the main opposition force from the right, therefore leaving no room for L.R. and pushing more Republicains to join Macron for the législatives. Which Macron might appreciate.
Ain't politics a lot of fun !

Anonymous said...

I've heard this described as "un jeu de billard à cinq bandes", no idea how that translates;
Macron is smart.
He doesn't want to further legitimate the FN by making them the defacto opposition, because 2022 isn't far from now. A healthy democracy will need a part of the left and a party of the right.

Anonymous said...

Don't know where to post this

For once, an English-language article that isn't woefully inadequate.

Here, excellent reporting: