Sunday, September 24, 2017

My Hot Take on the German Election

Here. TL;DR version: Not good for Macron or France.

5 comments:

Tim said...

I am not sure I agree with the sentiment that the result is NOT good for Macron or France. My sense is whatever negative influence of the FDP is blunted by the Greens. Having said we can't dismiss Merkel being forced into running a minority government or even new elections. I just can't see a Jamaica that is that stable for any length of time. Overall I think we are probably in for a long period of coalition negotiations in Berlin which in it of itself can be seen as "bad."

One other thing to note is Macron is really one of the few major leaders that is currently in control of his own domestic political destiny. Most everyone else May, Trump, Merkel even at the domestic level is a prisoner of other political forces.

Geoffy4T said...

One thing the German results would appear to confirm is that predictions about the death of Populism are wildly premature. From that,two points:

1)It is pretty clear Le Pen's collapse should be taken more as verdict on her than on her message. I have also before pointed out that analysts are uniform in their opinion that misogyny played a role in Clinton's defeat, but few have mentioned the role it may have played in MLP's. Both ran uninspiring campaigns and it appears women are given no room for error.

2)Furthermore, truculation that Macron's win marked the high water mark of Populism is simply a case of the wish being father to the thought. This phenomenon [Populism] is currently understood as a RIGHT-WING movement, focused primary on immigration. But if instead it is defined as merely EU-skepticism [on the continent] and anti-Neo-Liberalism [in America], then the definition embraces not only Trump, but Melanchon and Corbyn, too. Can there be different flavors of Populism, then? Clearly, yes.

Macron is in a difficult spot. As nations turn inward, preaching multilateralism abroad and tough love at home is likely to be lonely for a solar-powered young leader. The times remind one of Schlesinger's "Crisis of the Old Order."

Anonymous said...

Two quibbles:

-In re: Schäuble, if he is replaced it will be by a member of the FDP, not by a Green and certainly not by a socialist. The position that Schäuble represents vs. Merkel emerges stronger from this election.

-There is no plausible way for Merkel to try to "pick up votes" for a coalition: if the Union cannot manage a formal coalition with other parties (either Jamaica or "grand"), she will lead the Federal Republic's first minority government.

The article's main thrust is depressingly correct, however. Germany is turning right, and it has no appetite for Macron's EU reforms.

Anonymous said...

Well, it seems Frauke Petry will be up for grabs! Not that there is any good reason to hope a divided far-right will be a weak far-right, alas...

bert said...

Quite a bit riding on tomorrow's Sorbonne speech.

”Situation excellente, j'attaque”, followed by four years of trench warfare.