A new poll shows the race settling into a two-person contest between Macron and Le Pen, but Fillon is hanging on to his ~20%, while Macron's support is remarkably soft, with 58% of his voters saying they could still change their minds, compared with only 24% of Le Pen's voters. With the left-wing candidates going nowhere, it's not clear where Macron's supporters would go if they lose confidence in him.
Thursday, March 9, 2017
Abstention Could Determine the Outcome of the Presidential Election
As I reported last week, the expected level of abstention in this year's presidential is abnormally high. A new study confirms the one I mentioned previously, and the softness in the center in particular is no doubt alarming to the campaign of Emmanuel Macron. I don't have time to analyze these findings in detail today, but I will return to this topic in the future. It's a new and interesting development in French politics, in which participation in presidential elections has historically been high. Apparently, the decomposition of the party system and the blurring of the left-right divide has left many voters disoriented and unsure which way to turn.
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