Friday, May 5, 2017

The Macron E-Mail Hack

Relax, people. He's 22 points ahead, he does not have Clinton's baggage, France knows all about campaign skullduggery, and what has immediately been denounced on all sides as foul play will probably add to his vote total rather than subtract from it. Le Pen's appointment of a Holocaust denier as interim head of the party, her reversals on Frexit and the euro, her savagery and psychotic smile in the debate--all these things have reminded people of what 6 years of "de-demonization" had been intended to make them forget, that the FN is not a party like the others. 

It's over. Macron has won. Non passaran. Salvation is at hand. And then what? It's back up the mountain for Sisyphus.

A Hypothetical for Your Consideration

Suppose Marine Le Pen doesn't want to win this election. Then the events of the last two weeks would make sense. The retreat from EU withdrawal and euro abandonment consequent upon the wine-watering choice of Dupont-Aignan as prime minister-designate, the bizarrely aggressive debate performance, the disastrous nomination of Jalkh to head the party (how could MLP not have known of his Holocaust denial)--all these things make no sense for a candidate who wants to win but have a ready explanation if she wants to lose.

The FN has always been the family business, and a good business it was. Election would quickly spoil the brand. The party would have to take responsibility, and Le Pen surely knows how hard it would be to deliver on any of her promises. She knows she has zero chance of obtaining a working majority in the Assembly. So why spoil a good thing? By losing, she keeps herself pristine as leader of those who refuse to compromise with "the system" (Mélenchon will be a robust challenger, but he has been a minister, hence is already tainted). Really, there's no upside in winning. She'd probably face violent protests even before taking office. Why shoulder the burden of bloody repression when you can parlay failure into a healthy income stream?

Look at Donald Trump's dilemma. Profits or power? He's now got all the headaches of power. Of course he can use it to multiply his profits. But that's because he already has a tentacular private-sector empire. Marine's business will do better if she can stay out of office. And she was losing anyway. So why not shut the door on any outside chance of victory? Behave like a Neanderthal in debate. Confuse your supporters by reneging on your signature policy proposals. Keep your internal rivals guessing about what you're up to.

The only danger for Le Pen is that she will lose so badly that the internal enemies will see their chance and take their shot. That means primarily Marion Maréchal Le Pen, but she's still very young. MLP probably figures it was worth the risk. She's playing to lose. Maybe. Jus' sayin' ....

First Post-Debate Poll: Macron + 2

The first post-debate poll, by Elabe, shows Macro with a two-point bounce: