Sunday, May 7, 2017

Early Data from FT

Interesting piece. (May be paywalled.)

Note the maps. Macron squeezed Le Pen back into her deepest redoubts, wiped out previous geographic gains. Only 10% of Mélenchon supporters crossed to Le Pen, well below the 18% predicted. Fillon voters did vote for Le Pen, however. The republican front collapsed on the right, not on the left. This augurs a hard-right turn for LR. If Wauquiez becomes the party leader, an alliance with the FN is possible, I wager.

First Thoughts

I discuss the results in a podcast with journalists Karin Pettersson of Sweden's Aftonbladet and Georg Diez of Germany's Der Spiegel. And I have a hot take in Foreign Affairs.

Macron's two speeches were excellent, but the big news is that Marine Le Pen will launch a new party and seek alliances--a frank admission that her plan to make the FN salonfähig has failed.

Baroin has gone straight into opposition with nary a kind word for Macron. The battle between him and Wauquiez for control of LR will be fierce and nasty, I predict.

Le Pire ne passe pas

If you'll forgive me for expressing an opinion, On a gagné! The worst has not happened. Le Pen's re-demonization of her party in the final 2 weeks ensured that Macron would do even better than had been predicted from the beginning. Now the real work begins. I wish the new president the best of luck. Stay tuned for the legislatives.