Monday, January 8, 2018

Whither Germany?

This is a question that matters a lot for French as well as German politics. I describe the quandary here, in my latest piece for The American Prospect.


bernard said...

I had not read your piece when I commented earlier today. Still, I would find it very difficult to argue that CSU is or ever was centre-right. And that characterization is very symptomatic in my view, just like a similar characterization for Wauquiez's LR would be (I am saying Wauquiez's because jhe won't be there forever and, in particular, he won't be there if and when LR eventually gets back to office). I would call these hard right, stopping just short of calling them extreme right. If you were to accept this characterization, then things change in terms of the fortunes of the centre-left or centre-right. Reports of their death are exaggerated. There will be a coalition very soon, SPD is simply trying to get better jobs like the finance ministry (hope is eternal in my view...). The reason I am convinced there will be one is simply that it is the only available solution to the electoral results, and Germans look poorly on unrealistic solutions.

bernard said...

And BTW I have been an avid reader of your wonderful blog for almost ten years now and have enjoyed commenting and, sometimes, disagreeing so much. I'll switch to the Tocqueville site of course, but I'll still miss this one. Bravo for all your accomplishments!

Anonymous said...

I fear that if Macron can't strike a meaningful deal on the Euro, German politics will continue to drift right- towards Austria, if not towards Visegrád. There is still a reserve of pro-European sentiment in Germany, but not much will to make sacrifices on its account. If Germany comes to be divided between anti-Europeans and "pro-European" politicians like Lindner who want to force austerity on their southern neighbors, then the Eurozone will risk collapse the next time there is a recession in Italy.

I don't think that people in Europe really grasp the urgency of this situation. Macron does, however- he is trying his best to fix things, and (in addition to his energy and intelligence and other good qualities) he is very lucky, as Art says.